Nonfiction

The Premonition: A Pandemic Story

The Premonition: A Pandemic Story

  • Downloads：7424
  • Type：Epub+TxT+PDF+Mobi
  • Create Date：2022-04-07 10:21:48
  • Update Date：2025-09-06
  • Status：finish
  • Author：Michael Lewis
  • ISBN：1324035536
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Summary

Fortunately， we are still a nation of skeptics。 Fortunately， there are those among us who study pandemics and are willing to look unflinchingly at worst-case scenarios。 Michael Lewis’s taut and brilliant nonfiction thriller pits a band of medical visionaries against the wall of ignorance that was the official response of the Trump administration to the outbreak of COVID-19。


The characters you will meet in these pages are as fascinating as they are unexpected。 A thirteen-year-old girl’s science project on transmission of an airborne pathogen develops into a very grown-up model of disease control。 A local public-health officer uses her worm’s-eye view to see what the CDC misses， and reveals great truths about American society。 A secret team of dissenting doctors， nicknamed the Wolverines， has everything necessary to fight the pandemic: brilliant backgrounds， world-class labs， prior experience with the pandemic scares of bird flu and swine flu…everything， that is， except official permission to implement their work。


Michael Lewis is not shy about calling these people heroes for their refusal to follow directives that they know to be based on misinformation and bad science。 Even the internet， as crucial as it is to their exchange of ideas， poses a risk to them。 They never know for sure who else might be listening in。

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Reviews

Alan Davis ，

I found myself excited as I read。 The story of the leadup to the COVID pandemic is fascinating and goes a long way to explain why the US handled the epidemic so badly。 He is talking about the bureaucratic morass and the inability of our culture and institutions to do what we， naively， expect then to be doing for us。 In the present case， of course， it was exacerbated by a President and politics that made it impossible to act decisively， and a populace that didn't trust。 Along the way he highlight I found myself excited as I read。 The story of the leadup to the COVID pandemic is fascinating and goes a long way to explain why the US handled the epidemic so badly。 He is talking about the bureaucratic morass and the inability of our culture and institutions to do what we， naively， expect then to be doing for us。 In the present case， of course， it was exacerbated by a President and politics that made it impossible to act decisively， and a populace that didn't trust。 Along the way he highlights the heroes that managed to battle and overcome the inertia of those institutions。 。。。more

Annabelledaffodil ，

A fantastic read， both riveting and eye opening。 It’s about the US response to the pandemic， and the multiple ways it failed to react in a timely or useful manner。 Sadly， the same could probably be said for many governments around the world。 It does not bode well for future pandemics or any other crisis requiring efficient and effective intervention。 Highly recommended for anyone with the slightest interest in the pandemic - which honestly should be everyone， given the impact it’s had on our liv A fantastic read， both riveting and eye opening。 It’s about the US response to the pandemic， and the multiple ways it failed to react in a timely or useful manner。 Sadly， the same could probably be said for many governments around the world。 It does not bode well for future pandemics or any other crisis requiring efficient and effective intervention。 Highly recommended for anyone with the slightest interest in the pandemic - which honestly should be everyone， given the impact it’s had on our lives。 。。。more

A ，

This has crazier stories than I expected。 The United States had know-how and willingness to control the pandemic。 It chose not to。 And just like the banking crisis， no one went to prison for murdering a million Americans and counting。 These are few characters here who are truly inspirational。 Michael Lewis never disappoints！

Tracyp ，

Fascinating！ Reads like a thriller。

Janie ，

Interesting insight into the pandemic。

Molly ，

Not my favorite of his works， but Lewis has a gift for characters。

Naomi Klayman ，

Wow！ I did not think this nonfiction would be such a page turner。 My main reaction is hope - these really smart people have our backs while our government dithers。 Lewis brings these individuals to light so eloquently。 I feel I know and want to be friends with each of them。

Alan Spinrad ，

Excellent discussion of the failure to adequately address COVID despite astute insights by skilled and caring people。

Karen ，

Riveting， eye opening。 All the things you suspected of our government laid bare to the truth。 Michael Lewis is incapable of writing a bad book。

Jenny ，

Well written。 Sad to think our country is s poorly run。

Karen ，

Caveat - this is not a partisan or political review in any way。 This was a riveting read that illuminated key actions in US pandemic preparedness and response in the years before and during the initial period of the pandemic。 Having recently read “The Great Influenza” by John Barry， I was fascinated to learn that this book sparked a response from GW Bush to develop a pandemic plan。 This was very prescient。 Unfortunately it was sub-optimized （I’m being generous） in the administrations that follow Caveat - this is not a partisan or political review in any way。 This was a riveting read that illuminated key actions in US pandemic preparedness and response in the years before and during the initial period of the pandemic。 Having recently read “The Great Influenza” by John Barry， I was fascinated to learn that this book sparked a response from GW Bush to develop a pandemic plan。 This was very prescient。 Unfortunately it was sub-optimized （I’m being generous） in the administrations that followed （both）。Several key themes stood out for me。 First， advances in data science in the years preceding the pandemic led to big discoveries on how disease is spread。 This started in part with a high school science project that was picked up by several very astute clinicians and scientists and became key components of the response plan。 A key finding was that schools are a primary vector of spreading disease （this may seem obvious but the data quantified the impact and the significant impact relative to other variables）。 Second， political governance and public health are not aligned。 There were many set-backs at the Federal， CDC， and state and local levels stemming from political interests that do not support dissemination or development of public health。 The book covers in some detail the specific barriers。 All administrations were part of the problem。 The CDC operates with barriers that are deeply entrenched and prevent it from effectively serving the public good。 State and local resources are fractured and inconsistent。 Third， issues in the health care industry prevented effective response。 There is resistance to change and significant monetary interests that prevent effective service to the public。 And it is unconscionable that some sectors （e。g。 major labs） made money off this situation。 The book also highlights how an incredible amount of money goes into the ineffective treatment of disease when cures exist but are not known in the process。 Finally – and on a positive note- there is incredible advancement and capability out there （e。g。， DeRisi （CZ） BioLab）。 If the nation can get its act together we can make significant advancements in detecting and treating all disease。 Having worked in the industry for many years I can say that the industry does not want this to happen – treating disease is how the industry makes money。 There are very good people in the industry but they are victims to the economics and most have not been strong enough to overcome that。 The book highlights that a few heroes played a key role behind the scenes in driving the outcomes that we did achieve。 They worked very hard against incredible barriers。 They put their jobs on the line。In the years before the pandemic the US rated as having a world leading pandemic response position。 However we fell very short and unnecessary lives were lost due to the issues highlighted above。 For me this is a call to action that we need a new way to fund and govern public health。I think this is an interesting and important read for all of us who have lived through this pandemic。 。。。more

John Poulain ，

Just as the author predicted I picked this up as a sequel to Fifth Risk， where Lewis framed Trump's presidency as the management of the largest risk portfolio in the world， someone who wasn't interested in finding out about problems because then he might have to fix them， and managed to get away without a serious problem for three years until Covid hit。However this isn't really a book about Trump's handling of the pandemic saying "Trump's was a Comorbidity" but the real issue being that the CDC Just as the author predicted I picked this up as a sequel to Fifth Risk， where Lewis framed Trump's presidency as the management of the largest risk portfolio in the world， someone who wasn't interested in finding out about problems because then he might have to fix them， and managed to get away without a serious problem for three years until Covid hit。However this isn't really a book about Trump's handling of the pandemic saying "Trump's was a Comorbidity" but the real issue being that the CDC was ill prepared to make decisions under pressure， wanting complete data and erring on the side of not acting （Obama's handling of the Swine Flu pandemic is brought up as an example）。With a lot of references to the 1918 Flu （which is referred to as the worse case scenario at one point， although it's more than possible to think of historic worse cases） and their treatment I was surprised to hear that the closing of schools was recommended as a way to slow the infection as we already had research on that at the beginning of the pandemic。 However it was the paper by the authors in this book that I'd read。They also discuss issues with the 1976 Flu response， that it disappeared out of nowhere after there had been fatalities from the vaccine rollout damaged the CDC reputation and made the organisation more political （which given the length of time of nearly 50 years I'm not sure had a direct impact on Covid）。Whilst in the Covid response the team of "wolverines" make declarations about how bad the virus could be they had previously admitted to overreacting about previous viruses so it's hard to tell if "redneck epidemiology" was a really good indicator or if it's easy to predict pandemics when there are no stakes involved （indeed their key forecaster going on holiday to an international wedding after reporting that there might be a problem with the Wuhan numbers and the rest of them waiting over a week before checking on it may indicate that it wasn't really a priority）。Mann Gultch fire is mentioned a few times which is a very interesting metaphor for fighting something with exponential growth （fire） and approaching a situation in a novel way （escape fire）。It's an interesting read and more about the complexities that arise in systems than outright bashing anyone for making mistakes。 The CDC being research focused， capitalism not incentivising large reserves of stock in case of major incidents or hospital software being unable to use a free testing service because its accounting software saw $0。00 as an error。 。。。more

Tao ，

Depressing but engrossing。 A first attempt to tell the giant story of the covid pandemic。 A snapshot while the story continues to unfold all around us。Take away is the CDC is not coming to save us。

Trish McLellan ，

I enjoyed this book as the author tells a story over several years， leading up to the situation during the pandemic in 2020。 There were lots of interesting people described and information about the work that had been done to know what should be done during a pandemic。

Steven Wojcik ，

Confusing to me

Erica ，

Lewis really is gifted at telling seemingly boring true accounts with the drama， interest and pacing of a novel。 I feel like I learned a LOT about our healthcare 'system' - things I had no idea of， really。 It is hard to believe that we ended up as the example *not* to follow in the event of a pandemic while other countries showed us how to handle it while saving peoples' lives。 I think we have really let our healthcare workers down， like as a society。 What in the world would we do without them？ Lewis really is gifted at telling seemingly boring true accounts with the drama， interest and pacing of a novel。 I feel like I learned a LOT about our healthcare 'system' - things I had no idea of， really。 It is hard to believe that we ended up as the example *not* to follow in the event of a pandemic while other countries showed us how to handle it while saving peoples' lives。 I think we have really let our healthcare workers down， like as a society。 What in the world would we do without them？ 。。。more

Elizabeth Fensin ，

FASCINATING。 The US has no national public health network and there is no money in disease prevention。

Ranjan R。 Lamichhane ，

This book is a much needed and a successful unraveling of the fiasco of US health system。 The incompetency of our government because of its unwavering reliance on partisan politics and the encroaching politicization of more of more branches of government offices is staggering and unsettling。 The example of how CDC turned into a spineless and relatively worthless organization after its politicization should be an eye opener for all Americans who see the value in field experts rather than politici This book is a much needed and a successful unraveling of the fiasco of US health system。 The incompetency of our government because of its unwavering reliance on partisan politics and the encroaching politicization of more of more branches of government offices is staggering and unsettling。 The example of how CDC turned into a spineless and relatively worthless organization after its politicization should be an eye opener for all Americans who see the value in field experts rather than politicians making decisions on important matters。 American public health is a debacle of massive proportions and hopefully this book is an eye-opener to voters and policy-makers。 。。。more

Seth ，

Very well-written， nice depiction of the American pandemic response。

Jack Cheng ，

This was hard to put down。 Michael Lewis is always good， although I was worried that a pandemic story might be too soon， too stressful。 Well， as usual， Lewis finds characters who are both peripheral and integral to the larger story。 You’ve never heard of these people but Anthony Fauci and others listen to their advice。 Among other things this book elevates the role of local public health officials， delineates differences between the observational science of the CDC and the proactive experiments This was hard to put down。 Michael Lewis is always good， although I was worried that a pandemic story might be too soon， too stressful。 Well， as usual， Lewis finds characters who are both peripheral and integral to the larger story。 You’ve never heard of these people but Anthony Fauci and others listen to their advice。 Among other things this book elevates the role of local public health officials， delineates differences between the observational science of the CDC and the proactive experiments of front line health analysts， illuminates ideas about organizations （find the L7） and explains what following the science means （models and extrapolations that could be wrong， but decisions have to be made…）。 If you wondered who came up with pandemic modeling （high school science project） or the term social distancing， that’s in this book。 。。。more

Tim Lightfoot ，

The usual masterful piece of storytelling from one of the best in the business。 Most of the book is spent on the run up to the failure to execute， and not the failure itself。 And， because Lewis’s telling of that run up is such an engaging story of unheralded American heroes， not much has to be said about the failure。 It is painfully evident。 And such a shame。

Stephanie Slavkin ，

Governing by the People， for the People : Lessons from a（nother） PandemicLewis tells the story of protecting the public during COVID-19 through real people， whose characters are well-developed and complete with flaws。 It tells of the complex， difficult and thankless decisions that are made to protect a sometimes-naive public and the real consequences of those decisions。 It's also a tale of a formal， entrenched government that is so risk averse when it comes to public perception and economic unce Governing by the People， for the People : Lessons from a（nother） PandemicLewis tells the story of protecting the public during COVID-19 through real people， whose characters are well-developed and complete with flaws。 It tells of the complex， difficult and thankless decisions that are made to protect a sometimes-naive public and the real consequences of those decisions。 It's also a tale of a formal， entrenched government that is so risk averse when it comes to public perception and economic uncertainty that it willingly risks the lives of hundreds of thousands of its citizens。 I marvel at how Lewis tackles these subjects - that could be dry， boring and preachy - in real time through real people who are heroes and heroines in the true sense of the words。 Thank you for telling their stories。 。。。more

Caila ，

4。5*first half is stellar， but runs out of steam midway through

Emily ，

An interesting review of both public health history and present day coronavirus response。 While we continue to live in this pandemic， it was interesting to read about those who had the most information behind the scenes early on and how response was weak and where mistakes were made。 That being said， there were definitely some heroes within。

Elizabeth Louitus Moncur ，

This review has been hidden because it contains spoilers。 To view it， click here。 To me this book was an eye opener。 It took me a bit to get going with but then it really got my attention。 I can see so many things were mishandled。。。the CDC， WHO， and our government。 Then there were the individuals who tirelessly did amazing work， but the system just failed。 As I said， eye opener， and I found myself saying humm or yup， that's what happened。 It was a good read。 To me this book was an eye opener。 It took me a bit to get going with but then it really got my attention。 I can see so many things were mishandled。。。the CDC， WHO， and our government。 Then there were the individuals who tirelessly did amazing work， but the system just failed。 As I said， eye opener， and I found myself saying humm or yup， that's what happened。 It was a good read。 。。。more

Daniel ，

Not sure why this book was so unputdownable。 Fascinating characters and a depressing look at the politicization of health care。 The lesson is that we promote the appeasers， the Chamberlains and fire the bold， truth speaking Churchills。 The CDC was always my ideal of a noble institution and they come off particularly badly here。

Michelle ，

Fantastic book。

Moira Burke ，

Heroic profiles of public health workers who created an effective strategy to reduce Covid that no one listened to。 Most of the book is intensely inspiring， making a reader want to fight the good fight despite resistance， though the last few chapters， in which the systemic problems in the US government overwhelm our heroes， are utterly shattering。

Barb ，

Part I read like a gripping thriller: From Bush reading 1918 and realizing they needed a plan， to a small group of scrappy nerds and practitioners who kept working on it and occasionally using aspects of their plan， to the need to really ACT on the plan and seeing the way the public health system was so fractured， decentralized， and unsupported。 （And yes， in March 2022， we're about to see this play out again， taking away the targeted layering systems that are needed -- no masks， distancing， test Part I read like a gripping thriller: From Bush reading 1918 and realizing they needed a plan， to a small group of scrappy nerds and practitioners who kept working on it and occasionally using aspects of their plan， to the need to really ACT on the plan and seeing the way the public health system was so fractured， decentralized， and unsupported。 （And yes， in March 2022， we're about to see this play out again， taking away the targeted layering systems that are needed -- no masks， distancing， tests or money for treatment， dismembered all at once。 Hope the company that Charity Dean， Carter Mecher， and Joe DeRisi can help us out this time around。）。 If the book had ended here， I'd have given it a solid 5。Parts II and III were more scattershot and meandering; snippets of some ancillary tales including the evolution of the failings that we're seeing from the CDC now， dating back to the late 70's。 Interesting and relevant， but these sections felt choppy and disconnected from Part I。 。。。more

Jessica ，

A must read。 It felt more like an exposé of the American public health system。

Reference

google book https://www.google.com/search?tbm=bks&q=The Premonition: A Pandemic Story

hathitrust digital library https://babel.hathitrust.org/cgi/ls?q1=The Premonition: A Pandemic Story&field1=ocr&a=srchls&ft=ft&lmt=ft

The British Library https://bll01.primo.exlibrisgroup.com/discovery/search?query=any,contains,The Premonition: A Pandemic Story&tab=LibraryCatalog&search_scope=Not_BL_Suppress&vid=44BL_INST:BLL01&lang=en&offset=0